Vivek's Commentary

It is a well-noted fact that India has a severe problem of malnutrition. This malnutrition is not limited to economically backward states. Rich states like Maharashtra, and Gujarat are also suffering from malnutrition. Global Malnutrition Report 2021 does highlight the fact that India has not made any progress in tackling childhood wasting. Around 17% of Indian children under 5 years of age are suffering from childhood wasting (Wasting is referred to low weight for height). As far as stunting is concerned, over 34% of children under 5 years of age are still suffering from childhood stunting (Stunting is referred to low height for age). So despite having impressive growth, we couldn't solve the malnutrition issue.  I found a good article in Indian Express (https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/solving-the-child-malnutrition-puzzle-7154617/) where the author compares Indian states with sub-African countries. Despite having higher per capita income, Indian states have a higher lev...

Congress has been a strong party at the regional as well as national level. But the drastic decline of the Congress party in regional as well as the national sphere is reflecting few phenomenons. We can divide Congress's life into five major major periods: 1947-1967, 1967-1989, 1989-2004, 2004-2014, 2019-2022. Initially, Congress was the only party ruling across regions. Post-1967 what happens is Congress facing challenges from other parties. Our electoral system (First-Past-The-Post (FPTP)) tends to have a two-party system at the center (This law is known as Duverger’s law). While we do have a multiparty system, it depends on federalism and the concentration of power at the center. Under weak federalism and a higher concentration of power at the center, the FPTP system can have a two-party system at the center as well as at the state. Otherwise, FPTP can lead to a multiparty system. Now with this law, let's track what is happening with Congress. In the period 1967-1989, even t...

Budget 2022-2023 by Nirmala Sitaram seeks to increase the Capital Expenditure sharply. It is increased to around 7.5 Lakh crore which is around 2.8-2.9 % of GDP. Economic Survey also suggests that the increase in capital expenditure in previous years has increased the Gross Fixed Capital Formation. Economic Survey also finds that the state outlay of capital expenditure specifically in sectors like medical and public health, urban development is also increased. Indian Railway has also seen an increase in capital expenditure. And it will increase in the next 10 years. The capital expenditure is not actually government spending. It is a part of public saving i.e. part of the revenue that is not used for actual consumption but used for public investment. Such investment can induce another spending.   The capital expenditure is supposed to be counter-cyclic meaning it should increase in crisis (in bad times) and should adjust in good times. The current expenditure includes governme...

NFHS-5 data at the state level is now available for all states. Taking various ideas and indices altogether, let’s talk in the more easy way, who progressed and who didn’t. Whenever one talks about development, the first index that comes to mind is Human Development Index. The human development index has three main indicators: health (Life expectancy index), education (expected years of schooling and mean years of schooling), and income (per capita gross national income (PPP)). This covers the main important pillars. While the Human development index measures development, there are other indices like the multi-dimensional poverty index which measures poverty. Global Multidimensional Poverty Index, given by Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative, has 10 indicators. Table no.1 gives more details. Table no.1 Source: https://ophi.org.uk/multidimensional-poverty-index/   While Human Development Index can easily be constructed at the state level, the multidimension...

The recent discussion about population control sparked by the ruling party and the UP government’s bill is a bit perplexing because the government's academic stance differs. The economic survey 2018-19 (ESI 2018-19) raises concern over rapidly declining population growth as well as falling total fertility rate. It also suggests that few states will begin to transition to an aging society. There are two important questions (ignoring the religious argument. According to NFHS-4 (2015-16) and NFHS-5 (2019-20) (National Family Health Survey), almost all religions are witnessing the decline in fertility rate). 1) Is the population actually growing? 2) Population and (vs) Development: Population or Human Capital? 1) Is the population actually growing? India's annual population growth rate is already decreasing (Fig. 1). For the majority of states, population growth is less than one. It is highest in Bihar, with a population growth rate of less than 2 (Fig. 2). Figure 1 : A...