Vivek's Commentary

Economic Survey of India is providing incomplete arguments. There are serious issues in presenting the data. Since data used in Economics Survey (NFHS-5) is not yet publicly available, we will try to understand where the economic survey’s argument is incomplete and why I am skeptical about the data and methodology used. (I am not going to discuss the chapters which were highlighted in the previous survey and ignored by given survey like the discussion of five trillion economy, doubling farmers income, etc. I will discuss it in my next post.) First, predicted growth rate for 2021. IMF has predicted 11.5% where Survey also predicted that the growth rate will be around 11%. Why? On what basis, this double-digit figure is predicted.  Let’s discuss the IMF’s prediction.  IMF has predicted Y-Y growth rate is 11.5% where Q4 over Q4 is 1.69% in January 2021 World Outlook. This prediction was at 8.8% (for Y-Y growth rate) in October 2020. IMF has not given any strong reason for increasing the p