Vivek's Commentary

The recent discussion about population control sparked by the ruling party and the UP government’s bill is a bit perplexing because the government's academic stance differs. The economic survey 2018-19 (ESI 2018-19) raises concern over rapidly declining population growth as well as falling total fertility rate. It also suggests that few states will begin to transition to an aging society. There are two important questions (ignoring the religious argument. According to NFHS-4 (2015-16) and NFHS-5 (2019-20) (National Family Health Survey), almost all religions are witnessing the decline in fertility rate). 1) Is the population actually growing? 2) Population and (vs) Development: Population or Human Capital? 1) Is the population actually growing? India's annual population growth rate is already decreasing (Fig. 1). For the majority of states, population growth is less than one. It is highest in Bihar, with a population growth rate of less than 2 (Fig. 2). Figure 1 : A