Future of Middle Class

Pew Research Centre recently published their reports which suggest that due to the pandemic global middle class will face a crisis and will become “Poor”. For India, it is suggested that the Pandemic pushes 32 million Indians out of the middle class. I have two main objections related to the reports/articles. 

The first is related to the methodology. The findings are based on the extrapolation of previous surveys (pre-pandemic surveys) based on regional income distributions from the World Bank’s PovcalNet database. Therefore, the findings are not based on household surveys but on extrapolation. And that would obviously lead to the decline in income of every income category (poor, low income, middle, high-income category) with the same rate (as the overall size is contracted) which Pew Research article also assumes in methodology. This assumption misses one important point: the association between inequality, poverty, and growth is dynamic and also get affected by the pandemic. Assuming that the rate of decline is the same for all income categories is problematic. 

Second, here the discussion is about “Middle Income Class” not about “Middle Class”. There are fundamental differences between the middle-income class and the middle class. Today I will highlight this part i.e. the difference between Middle Income Class and Middle Class, some theoretical arguments related to the Middle Class and how Middle Class is getting affected by the Pandemic, and how the middle class will affect the economic-political situations. 

Since we are talking about class, let me start the discussion with Marx’s theory. According to him, there are two primary functions that exist in the capitalist system: 1) Capital Accumulation and 2) Labour Surplus. As there are capital accumulation and labor surplus, this leads to over-production and under consumption of the proletariat (working class). And on over-production and under consumption, it is predicted that the rate of profit will fall. So to survive the capitalist system, profit should be maintained and further, the cost incurred by capitalists should be reduced. Now how this will happen? This over-production and surplus require surplus idlers i.e. consumption without production. And that is done by the middle class. To survive the capitalist system there should be a group that will consume the surplus produced by the workers so that system will realize the profit. But there is a problem here. Why not the working-class or capitalist class is doing that? Why middle class? Why they are different than working-class and “non-working class”?

In ‘Towards a Structural Theory of the Middle Class’ John Urry discusses the four classical arguments proposed by different philosophers/social scientists (not based on income). (I am deliberately avoiding Guy Standings’s, Goldthorpe’s, Erik Olin Wright’s work to keep this first write-up easy to understand). The first argument is that the middle class is just an extension of the ruling class or capitalist class. 2nd argument suggests that the middle class is not close to the capitalist class but it is very close to the working-class since they both don’t own the means of production. According to the argument, the middle class doesn’t exist in the pure sense, there is just a false belief that they are different than working class but in the end, their interest coincides with the interests of the working class. The third argument reflects the viewpoint of the orthodox Marxist school where there is no such class called middle class, but there are some groups that have opposite interests one supports the ruling class and another supports the working class. Last argument which I personally feel is more realistic. It differentiates between “market situation” and “work situation”. The clerk is a classic example. The “Market Situation” of the clerk is not different than the traditional working-class but as far as “Work Situation” is concerned, the clerk does share the similarity with the ruling class. So middle class like the working class doesn’t own the means of production (i.e. Market Situation is similar) but Work Situation does have some aspects which are similar to the ruling class. Like they may have a say in the decision-making system. 

Now as we have fairly discussed few classical arguments related to the middle class, now let’s discuss the different post-pandemic scenarios. If I consider the first argument, then how pandemic will affect the middle class? The first argument suggests that the middle class is dependent on the ruling class, therefore, it is an extension of the ruling class. The impact of the pandemic on the middle class according to this argument will depend on the impact of the pandemic on the ruling class. If the ruling class suffers, then the dependent middle class will be affected negatively and that impact will lead to the merger of the middle class with the traditional working-class or with those classes which have no association with the ruling class. As the second argument suggests that the middle class is close to the working-class, if a pandemic affects the middle class then again, they will merge with this working class. The third argument suggests that there are some groups that have opposite interests one supports the ruling class and another supports the working class. This argument doesn’t recognize the middle class. Basically, these groups are basically overlapped with other class. The last argument differentiates between “market situation” and “work situation”. Now it is clear that since the economy is contracted, the market situation will be affected negatively but will the pandemic affect the work situation? If yes then again middle class will merge with traditional working class. So, in all scenario, the middle class is actually vanishing and getting merged with other classes which don’t share the similarity with the ruling class. 

Shrinking the middle class is not a new phenomenon/argument. As Ganesh Sitaraman suggested in his work (The Crisis of the Middle-Class Constitution: Why Economic Inequality Threatens Our Republic) the middle class is important as far as stability of economic democracy. If a pandemic is going affect the middle class negatively then there is a possibility that the post-pandemic society will be similar to Marx’s dichotomizes society which means the ruling class will be the only class that will determine everything. To avoid that the middle class must be rebuilt through tax policies, wage mechanisms, anti-trust anti-monopoly policies.  

Dahrendorf, R. (1959). Class and class conflict in industrial society (Vol. 15). Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.

Lewis, R., & Maude, A. The English Middle Classes, London, Phoenix House, 1949. LewisThe English Middle Classes1949.

Lockwood, D. (1958). The blackcoated worker: a study in class consciousness.

Sitaraman, G. (2017). The crisis of the middle-class constitution: Why economic inequality threatens our republic. Vintage.

Urry, J. (1973). Towards a structural theory of the middle class. Acta Sociologica, 16(3), 175-187.