शुक्रवार, २२ डिसेंबर, २०१७

BJP is losing the GUJARAT...

There is tremendous reduction in the power of BJP in Gujarat. One can easily say that by just observing the seats won by BJP. But I am going to use some concentration index to show that. In market, Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) is used to measure the monopoly power. The range of HHI is between 0 and 1. If HHI is 1 then there is monopoly i.e. one firm has absolute power in given market and if HHI is zero then it means no one has control over the market. HHI is calculated by adding the square of market shares of firms. Now I am going to use this HHI index in political economy to measure the concentration of power. After that I will use Effective Number of Political Parties which is proposed by Laakso, M., & Taagepera, R. (1979) to measure the degree of coalition.

(Data source – Election Commission of India) 

Now let’s see the HHI and ENP. 


(Index has been calculated)
Let me explain the trends. Here HHI is reduced from 0.48 to 0.29 in last 15 years. That is 50 % reduction. It means the concentration of BJP is reduced by 50% in Gujarat assembly. No let’s see the Effective Number of Political Parties. ENP is just a multiple inverse of HHI. ENP gives the actual number of parties in government. In democracy, generally one can’t have absolute power over the house. So ENP won’t be one. Now ENP is increased from 2.05 to 3.3 in last 15 years. It means in 2002, the government of BJP was similar to the coalition government formed by of two parties. Now in 2017, ENP is 3.37. That means, the present government of BJP is equally powerful to the coalition government formed by the 3 parties. Now it is clear that the power of BJP in house of Gujarat is reduced. 

Now let’s find the similar index by using the Lok sabha seats won by BJP in Gujarat. 


(Data source – Election Commission of India) 





Now according to lok sabha election 2012, HHI is 1 i.e. there is absolute control over Gujarat state. So according to lok sabha election result, BJP should have concentration near to 1 in Gujarat assembly. But actually HHI is 0.29 and ENP is 3.3. Compare to Lok sabha election, power of BJP is continuously declined. Following figures are clearly denoting the above fact. 




The reasons behind this reduction might be different. It might be because of raise of Congress or raise of rural conflict or bad policies of BJP. But one thing is sure, 2019 is not easy for BJP.

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